I launched the @ForeDex_Global on-chain data platform in April alongside the publication of my insight report, "How Bitcoin ETF Approval Changed Market Structure and Transaction Behavior." The reason I built the platform was simple. I wanted to directly quantify and verify how market structure and transaction behavior have changed since the approval of Bitcoin ETF. Today, I want to focus on just two of the most important changes. 1. Changes in Transaction Behavior Before ETF Approval - 10,000 BTC moved => 1 transaction After ETF Approval - 10,000 BTC moved => Split across 20–30 or more transactions In the past, it was common to see large amounts of Bitcoin deposited to exchanges in a single transaction for trading or liquidation purposes. Since ETF approval, however, this pattern has largely disappeared. Large transfers are now frequently distributed across multiple exchanges and addresses, resulting in dozens of smaller transactions instead of one large transaction. A representative example of this can be seen in the "Bitcoin Exchange Whale Inflow" data shown in Images 1 and 2. 2. Changes in Market Structure Before ETF Approval - 100 investors buy 1 BTC each - 100 on-chain transactions are generated After ETF Approval - 100 investors buy the equivalent of 1 BTC through an ETF - 1 settlement transaction is generated Before ETF, investors interacted directly with exchanges. As a result, 100 buy orders would typically create 100 separate on-chain activities. After ETF approval, investors purchase ETF shares instead of Bitcoin itself, and the ETF issuer handles the settlement process. In practice, 100 individual purchase orders may ultimately be settled through a single transaction. A representative example is shown in Image 3 through "Active Addresses" metric. Throughout the 2024–2025 bull market, institutional inflows reached historic levels, yet Active Addresses continued to decline. At first glance, this appears contradictory. How can institutional participation surge while active addresses fall? Once you understand the ETF settlement structure, the answer becomes much easier to explain. Conclusion These are not minor changes. More than two years have passed since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024. For over two years, on-chain data has been accumulating under a fundamentally different market structure. What was once 100 individual orders recorded as 100 transactions can now be represented by a single settlement transaction. What was once a single 10,000 BTC transfer can now appear as dozens or even hundreds of smaller transactions. This process has been repeated continuously for more than two years. I believe it is entirely reasonable to assume that the interpretation, behavior, and even the underlying assumptions behind many on-chain metrics may have changed during this period. That is why I do not believe it is merely a coincidence that many historically reliable cycle indicators and on-chain metrics failed to align perfectly with market conditions near this cycle's peak. And I do not believe this argument is an exaggeration. The examples discussed here are only two of many structural changes introduced by ETF. Even these two examples alone demonstrate how significantly the underlying data structure of the on-chain market may have evolved. For that reason, I believe the next market bottom could be just as different from previous cycles as the recent market top. This is not a time to confidently predict a bottom or aggressively position based solely on historical patterns. P.S. There is a reason why investors are so attracted to metrics such as MVRV. They provide a clear, quantitative framework for evaluating the market. To further validate the ideas discussed above, I have been developing new metrics and datasets designed to account for these structural changes. I look forward to sharing them soon.(mignolet)