SemiAnalysis’s take on ChangXin Memory boils down to two key points: 1) The potential market value of ChangXin Memory might be underestimated. 2) There’s still significant room for capacity expansion in the future. These two points are more important than simply discussing the gap in HBM. ChangXin has already transitioned from the narrative of domestic substitution to a phase of revenue, profit, capacity, and IPO revaluation. They’ve been scaling up commodity DRAM production quickly, with revenue growth driving profits, high capacity utilization, and an increasing global market share. If the IPO progresses smoothly, the market will reprice the company. Right now, ChangXin can’t directly compete head-to-head with SK Hynix, Micron, or Samsung in HBM. But it has already proven that domestic DRAM can enter the global competition stage, which is crucial for the A-share semiconductor sector. The success of a semiconductor company post-IPO depends on factors like scale, profitability, capacity, scarcity, and room for further expansion. ChangXin is already positioned in this sweet spot. Personally, I think ChangXin’s performance post-IPO won’t disappoint. It’s stacking multiple buffs: - The scarcity of domestic substitution, - Tailwinds from the memory cycle, - Certainty in capacity expansion, - Room for repricing in the capital market. Of course, the most direct beneficiaries of ChangXin’s IPO will be its upstream supply chain. To expand capacity, they’ll need to purchase equipment, materials, specialty gases, and components. These areas are more directly tied to new production lines and capital expenditures.