The 4-month undertaking area has also made the bottom range clearer Continuing from the previous article, we analyzed the reasons why BTC prices have been suppressed by STH-RP for a long time in bear markets. So when STH-RP forms compression above, the support below becomes particularly important. Since it is impossible to break through, where will there be acceptance, consumption, and selling pressure? This is extremely important for us to reasonably expect the bottom range! In the previous cycle, from June 2022 to March 2023, BTC prices fluctuated around RP (blue line: Realized Price) for 9 months. This is Xiong Mo's reception area, where time is used to establish a bottom consensus. Of course, the black swan event of FTX thunderstorms occurred in November 2022, causing prices to deviate from the blue line and prolonging the entire bottoming out period (which was an important factor affecting the timing). In this cycle, from February until now, BTC prices have been fluctuating around<10y_RP (purple line) under the suppression of STH-RP. The purple line is higher than the blue line, and in the previous cycle, the purple line did not provide any resistance at all, indicating that it did not take over. And this round's performance is clearly different. ⁉️ What is the reason behind this? From Figure 2, it can be seen that the proportion of the realized value weight of BTC held for more than 10 years in this cycle is 37 times that of the previous cycle. The sharp increase in proportion indicates that these ultra long term old coins have almost stopped moving. So when measuring the average cost of active chips, we need to exclude this part, otherwise it will seriously distort the cost base. After removal, we obtained<10y_RP (purple line in Figure 1). Obviously, this time a receiving area with the purple line as the central axis has been formed. Below the purple line is considered underestimation and will attract attention; Above the purple line or close to the red line, there will be throwing pressure. This' undertaking zone 'has been quietly running for 4 months, while the previous cycle lasted for 9 months under the same logic and data form. In terms of time, my personal judgment is that if there are no unexpected events happening next, the maximum duration will not exceed 5 months, that is, the total duration will not exceed 9 months. Before that, the situation will become increasingly clear. If unexpected events occur, it cannot be ruled out that the price may suddenly deviate from the purple line ($63800) like the previous cycle deviated from the blue line. But it should be considered that a batch of panic trading has already been completed near the purple line, and the cost of newly acquired chips is lower, resulting in a decrease in sensitivity to prices. Even if impacted by the event again, the distribution scale on the supply side will not be as large. There is a high probability that the area between the purple and blue lines will be the bottom range, and the difference is not significant.