"The rebounds during a bear market usually hit the STH-RP (Short-Term Holder Realized Price) as the ultimate ceiling. This is because a large number of short-term holders, lacking confidence in the market's future, choose to temporarily hedge when prices reach their breakeven point. So, every time a rebound touches or slightly breaks through the STH-RP, it’s the most “dangerous” moment. Logically speaking (as long as it’s still a bear market), the probability of a “false breakout, true top” is higher. However, over time, the “probability” of BTC being continuously suppressed by the STH-RP will gradually decrease. The further we go, the smaller it gets. In other words, any trend reversal always begins with the final “failed suppression.” Unlike the moving average system in candlestick charting, the “cost basis” is allowed to be breached. When the price falls below the STH-RP and then bounces back, it’s the market consuming selling pressure and seeking a new supply-demand balance. If it doesn’t work the first time, then try again! This is why, during a bear market, BTC’s price is often suppressed multiple times by the STH-RP but ultimately breaks through due to the underlying trend. Back to the present: BTC: $64,000, STH-RP: $71,800. Previously, the STH-RP has already suppressed the price twice (4 times in 2018-2019, 2 times in 2022-2023). In other words, when the price touches or breaks $72,000, that’s the critical moment we should pay close attention to. As mentioned above, suppression is the most likely scenario. Or you could see it as a potential short position with a stop-loss. But if not, and it instead breaks through decisively and even retests without falling back, then… the “dawn” has truly arrived." #BTC #Crypto #STHRP #BearMarket #Bitcoin