Prediction of the trend of the US stock market in late June and early July: high-level stress test, with the key window on June 25-30. Over the past week, the US stock market has managed to shake off the Fomo correction deleveraging trend of early June. https://(((x.com))/qinbufark/status/2062912854983086556? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， The biggest catalyst from a personal perspective is the low expected month on month core CPI on June 11th, and the strong expectation that the US Iran ceasefire memorandum is about to be reached starting from June 12th (which is also in line with the June 8th here https://(((x.com))/qinba Frank/status/2063804130074775578? What do you think about the next two to three weeks when we talk about s=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A and wait for a macro signal? I personally define the next two weeks as a stage of 'high-level oscillation with weak momentum, first preventing a pullback, and then seeing if it will be repaired in early July'. Because all five lines are simultaneously influencing the market: WashFed repricing; The possibility of an upward breakthrough in the US dollar index; Quarter end pension rebalancing and CTA mechanical flow; AI token economic audit; The Ministry of Finance will rebuild TGA and issue bonds to extract funds. Benchmark conclusion: June 25th to June 30th is the most vulnerable window; There will be seasonal fund recovery forces from July 1st to July 10th, but the quality of the recovery depends on the US dollar index, 2-year US Treasury bonds, TGA, and AI leaders' reactions. Looking forward to the new round of financial reporting season in mid to late July, which will boost and catalyze the market. 
 1. Current market situation: The trend is not bad yet, but the risk concentration is high The index and AI leaders are still in the vicinity of strong trends, and risk appetite remains high. A small issue is that when positions, valuations, and expectations are not low, the market's tolerance for negative information decreases significantly. 2. Detailed discussion on the five lines that will affect the market in the next two weeks 1) Walsh's debut changed the market's comfort with the Fed On the 18th, with Walsh's debut, the Fed shifted from a "biased interest rate cut" to a "two-way risk", and even faced tail risk of interest rate hikes, causing the market to reprice short-term interest rates. Many people are worried about a rate hike in September, although personal https://((x.com))/qinbufark/status/2067547681745178808? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A, and here we also discuss that ultimately it depends on the trend of oil prices, which ultimately determines the trend of inflation. But before the market is fully certain that the trend of inflation rebound has begun to reverse downwards, there will still be concerns in the market. 2) The breaking of the US dollar index is a new pressure item, and it is in the same direction as the Fed's repricing DXY is currently around 100.85, which is very close to the technical breakthrough level of 101.13, the 52 week high. After the WashFed, the US dollar and 2-year yield rose synchronously The impact of the strengthening of the US dollar on the US stock market is reflected in several aspects: suppressing risk appetite, causing damage to the overseas revenue conversion of multinational corporations, and if combined with the upward trend of 2-year returns, directly suppressing the overvaluation link. If the US dollar index breaks through, it will naturally put pressure on risk assets in the short term. Of course, if the market determines that the US economy is really strong and AI significantly improves productivity, then it is also very likely that the US stock market and the US dollar will move in the same direction, as was the case from 1995 to 2000. 3) Mechanical fund flow at the end of June: pension, CTA, OPEX jointly increase volatility Rebalance of pension funds at the end of the quarter: stocks have risen significantly, bonds are relatively weak → mechanical selling of stocks and buying of bonds. The funding adequacy ratio of the top 100 pension funds has reached its highest level since 2001, and it is expected that JPMorgan Chase will rebalance the flow of funds in the next two days, which may trigger a potential $165 billion stock sell-off. Of course, this kind of selling pressure is regular and not a major crisis. After the big OPEX (options delivery) on Thursday this week, the dealer gamma structure has changed, and the market has lost some of its "peg" power. Macro data or capital flows are more likely to drive unilateral fluctuations. CTA is path dependent, and it is important to pay attention to whether PCE/USD will first break the technical level of the index, and then CTA will follow suit and sell. 4) AI Fundamentals AI growth remains strong, but the market is starting to worry that companies are increasingly needing to determine which tasks are worth using expensive cutting-edge models, and will set token quotas to shift simple tasks to cheaper models. Recently, I have seen many reports that companies are limiting their token consumption limits. Although this trend will not change in the medium to long term, the prolonged fermentation in the short term will still affect market sentiment. Of course, I personally believe that this is at most an emotional shock. 5) The issuance of bonds by the Ministry of Finance, TGA, and bank reserve requirements. The current Fed H.4.1 has shown that TGA is increasing and reserve requirements are decreasing. The plan of the Ministry of Finance shows that the TGA target by the end of June is about 900 billion yuan, but it may be rebuilt towards around 1 trillion yuan in July, which is equivalent to withdrawing about 100 billion yuan of reserves (in the range of 50-150 billion yuan). 
 Key settlement date for bond issuance: June 30th: 2 years/5 years/7 years+settlement of multiple bills July 9th: settlement of multiple bills (including 52 weeks) July 15th: Settlement for 3 years/10 years/30 years So the main pressure at the end of June is pension rebalancing+CTA+auction settlement; The new issue in July is the continuous pumping of TGA reconstruction. 3. Subsequent key time points 1) June 24th: Micron Financial Report+Bank Stress Test (AI Hardware Chain Emotion Anchor) 2) June 25th: PCE (Core Macro Data), Weekly Initial Report, GDP Third Reading, etc 3) June 30th: Quarter end+Auction settlement+Pension rebalancing overlay Three scenarios 1) Personal opinion of the baseline scenario (50-55%) PCE is roughly in line or slightly hot, DXY is fluctuating around 101, Micron verifies demand but stock price is fluctuating. Technical selling pressure at the end of June, and attempts to repair with new configurations and repurchase funds in early July. 
 2) Optimistic scenario (25-30%): Core PCE is moderate, DXY rises and falls, 2-year decline, Micron has good performance and the stock price can rise. Performance: Re trading "AI profit correction+July seasonality+repurchase", QQ and semiconductor continue to lead the gains, but TGA is still pumping water in the background, and the rebound quality will not be too strong. 3) Pessimistic scenario (15-20%): PCE tends to be hot+DXY effectively stands at 101.5+maintains a high level for 2 years+Micron has good performance but sells the news+pension+CTA resonance. Performance: From a normal oscillation to a more pronounced pullback, Nasdaq and semiconductor have experienced greater pullbacks, with high valuation AI applications and small cap growth facing the most significant pressure. In summary, we can defend at the end of June and see if we can fix it in early July. If the US dollar fails to break through, PCE remains moderate, and AI leaders stabilize, a pullback at the end of June can be seen as technical pressure; If the US dollar and short-term interest rates continue to rise, and the TGA restructures and withdraws reserves, it will be necessary to revise the US stock market from "high volatility" to "liquidity driven pullback". We need to further look at the non farm payroll and CPI data for June released in July. Two major cores in the mid-term: 1) Commercialization of AI (see the increase in performance of large model ARR and cloud factory business) 2) Does the decline in oil prices lead to a decrease in inflation, which determines the previous situation here: https://(((x.com))/qinbank/status/2066324061828088265? Can the macro reset of s=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A chat be fulfilled.