Art of Speculation
Art of Speculation|6月 18, 2026 19:59
The semiconductor sector remains strong. Yesterday, the Fed leaned hawkish. Warsh emphasized the 2% inflation target and insisted on no forward guidance, with the market pricing in 'Higher for Longer.' Today, the market's response is clear: a hawkish Fed has little impact on AI semiconductors. The market continues its previous divergence pattern. Semiconductors, storage (DRAM), interconnects (AVGO, MRVL, ALAB, CRDO), and CPU sectors (INTC, ARM, AMD) remain favored by capital. Meanwhile, the energy sector is leading the decline, and companies in optical modules, software, and sectors under capital expenditure pressure are performing mediocrely. Why? Because the market is reinterpreting the idea that high interest rates don’t affect all growth stocks equally. If your growth relies on future rate cuts, then 'Higher for Longer' is bearish. But if your growth comes from GPU orders, HBM supply shortages, sustained ASIC volume growth, data center interconnect upgrades, and continued enterprise AI capital expenditures, then interest rates are just the denominator—profits and cash flow are the numerator. The market has realized that for AI infrastructure, the numerator’s growth outpaces the pressure from the denominator. So, the more hawkish the Fed, the more capital is willing to concentrate on AI infrastructure companies with real orders, cash flow, and CapEx certainty. This isn’t a full-blown bull market yet, but I believe the future bull market will last longer. Other sectors will eventually catch up, and companies that are underperforming now will also rise in the future. That’s what makes a healthy bull market. For now, it’s still a structural bull market. Companies with real orders, cash flow, and capital returns will only grow stronger amid the volatility.
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