The Fed's interest rate decision and Walsh's debut in the early hours of this morning are worth paying attention to two points: 1. The nine people in the dot matrix expect a rate hike this year, and only one person expects a rate hike this year. Walsh may not have provided an interest rate forecast for this year. One thing we need to pay attention to is that if the new Federal Reserve chairman no longer submits his own dot matrix forecast, can the dot matrix forecasts of other FOMC members still guide market expectations? If the ceasefire memorandum between the United States and Iran had not been signed, today's dot matrix should still have a considerable guiding effect on the market. The signing of the US Iran memorandum, the decline in oil prices, and the conversation on Monday at https://(x.com)/qinba frank/status/2066324061828088265? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A This will lead to a repricing of interest rate expectations. It can be seen that the FOMC voting committee's dot matrix prediction still relies on the trend and data before the signing of the memorandum. In fact, they did not fully consider the trend after the signing of the US Iran memorandum, which is actually an expectation gap. It can also be understood that the memorandum has just been signed, and the future trend is still unclear. The safest way is to use the previous data to make predictions, and make revisions at any time in the future. The inflation forecast given by the Federal Reserve today is actually a logical plot. As Walsh said, "I reviewed the dot matrix and when I saw the submitted content, I noticed that all the submissions were written in pencil, the kind with a large eraser... For me, this is not helpful for policy implementation." This is also what we talked about on Monday, and the market's interest rate expectations will quickly adjust with changes in the macro situation and data, which is not very meaningful. From this point of view, the same applies to dot patterns. 2. Policy pace The pace of this policy is actually the most important message of Walsh's debut. Walsh announced the immediate establishment of five special working groups, focusing on: Federal Reserve communication, balance sheet, data source utilization, productivity and employment (impact of AI), and inflation framework. He expects these working groups to reach a conclusion before the end of this year. This confirms that the midterm elections, which have been discussed since early February, serve as a watershed: before the midterm elections, Walsh will not aggressively push his policy proposals, and action may only be taken next year after the midterm elections. This is also what we have been talking about before: the pace of policies has a greater impact on the market than policy proposals. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'