Goldman Sachs Interprets the 'Postmodern' Investment Cycle: AI and Geopolitics are Driving the Capital Expenditure Super Cycle BlockBeats News: On June 17th, Goldman Sachs believes that the world is transitioning from a "modern" super cycle characterized by low inflation, low interest rates, and globalization to a "postmodern" cycle characterized by higher macroeconomic volatility, higher real interest rates, stronger state intervention, and more pronounced regionalization. In this environment, the era of relying on valuation expansion to drive returns is coming to an end, and earnings per share growth will become the core variable of market performance. Goldman Sachs strategists Peter Oppenheimer, Sharon Bell, and others pointed out in a report titled "Postmodern Cycles: Managing the Capital Expenditure Boom" that higher capital costs are suppressing the expansion space of valuation multiples, and the cross-sectional dispersion of market returns is increasing. Strategies that rely solely on beta exposure will face greater challenges, and the alpha value of active stock selection will significantly increase. The report suggests that the wave of private capital expenditures brought about by the AI revolution, coupled with the increase in government public investment driven by geopolitics, is forming a capital expenditure super cycle. Goldman Sachs data shows that in the first quarter of 2026, the capital expenditures of S&P 500 constituent stocks increased by 38% year-on-year, while the repurchase growth rate was only 1%, reversing the logic of companies relying more on repurchases rather than capital expenditures after the financial crisis. In terms of AI spending, Goldman Sachs' consolidated market consensus expectations show that Amazon Meta、 Google, Microsoft, and Oracle are expected to have a total capital expenditure of approximately $75.5 billion in 2026, which is about 80% higher than a year ago and an increase of about 84% compared to actual expenditure in 2025. It is expected to further rise to approximately $92 billion in 2027. Goldman Sachs pointed out that capital expenditure momentum is spreading from data centers to the energy, industrial, and infrastructure sectors. Goldman Sachs stated that the growth of tech giants has become increasingly reliant on physical infrastructure such as data centers and power supply, which will bring about a "cascading effect" that allows capital expenditures to spill over to traditional value industries such as industry, energy, and utilities. At the same time, geopolitics are driving up defense spending and providing support for the demand for traditional defense equipment such as aircraft, tanks, ammunition, and ships. Goldman Sachs reiterated its preference for capital expenditure benefiting stocks and recommended four thematic investment baskets: artificial intelligence, defense spending, electricity and electrification, and HALO (heavy asset stocks). Goldman Sachs believes that overall returns at the index level may become flat in the future, but the relative return differentiation across regions, industries, and styles will expand, and investors are entering a new era of active management and more valuable alpha generation.