qinbafrank|Jun 17, 2026 03:37
On the night of June 11, right before SpaceX's IPO, there was a livestream on OKX Planet. Looking back now, some of the predictions we discussed about SpaceX's IPO trajectory have been validated:
- The $135 offering price was unlikely to break below issue price.
- Factors like low circulation, expectations of being included in indices, unlocking arrangements, and business forecasts all contributed to a post-IPO rally.
- The closer we get to the unlocking period, the more cautious we need to be. After the year-end unlocking, it should present a good opportunity for mid-to-long-term allocation (this part still needs to be verified in the future).
Actually, the most valuable part of the livestream was the breakdown of SpaceX's business model:
1. Before merging with xAI, SpaceX was already a highly profitable company. Its launch and Starlink businesses generated $15 billion in revenue and $4 billion in net profit in 2025. The losses shown in the IPO filing for 2025 were primarily due to xAI's business losses after the merger.
2. However, after signing compute power rental contracts with Anthropic and Google, these contracts alone are expected to bring in $25 billion in annual cash flow. Even after accounting for operating costs, this completely offsets the losses from the AI business, potentially turning it into a profitable segment. This could significantly transform SpaceX's overall cash flow.
3. The growth potential of the Starlink business is very promising. In 2025, Starlink's revenue reached $11.3 billion, with $4.4 billion in profit. The key point is that in Q1 2026, Starlink had 10.3 million subscribers, doubling from 5 million in Q1 2025. In the long term, reaching hundreds of millions of Starlink users is entirely feasible.
For more details, you can check out the livestream highlights posted by Mercy or watch the replay on OKX Planet: https://oyidl.net/ul/t7vZ0vT
Big thanks to @Mercy_okx @Haiteng_okx @okxchinese!
Share To
Timeline
HotFlash
APP
X
Telegram
CopyLink