US Iran reaches peace agreement, Memorandum of Understanding MoU, Although there has been no comprehensive strategic reconciliation, at least everyone has achieved what they need. The Trump administration needs to suppress inflation, stabilize the energy market, and fulfill its political promise to end the war before the November midterm elections, while Iran, which has experienced over a hundred days of blockades and airstrikes, urgently needs to lift its naval blockade and retrieve $25 billion in overseas assets that may be unfrozen. The ceasefire agreement will be officially signed in Geneva this Friday (June 19th), and global assets have provided the most direct feedback: -With the announcement of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices plummeted in response -Risk assets suppressed due to the Middle East geopolitical crisis in the past three months have experienced liquidity inflows Tell me a few key details: According to the disclosed draft memorandum, this ceasefire is only an extension option for negotiation pricing. The agreement provides both parties with a 60 day intensive technical negotiation window to resolve structural conflicts: the dilution of Iran's highly enriched uranium, the re-entry of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the actual clearance of US sanctions on the Persian Gulf, Trump has stated that if Iran does not meet the conditions of the nuclear agreement within 60 days, the US military will resume military strikes. In practical terms, risk has only been extended backwards, and the current market surge is a mispricing of tail risk elimination. In addition, there is an obscure detail in the draft that the strait will reopen under Iran's arrangement in the future, which basically implies that even if navigation is restored in the future, Iran will have greater bargaining chips in channel management, substantive inspections, and even disguised taxation than before the conflict. That is to say, the benchmark for long-term sovereign risk premium commercial insurance rates for shipping in the Persian Gulf has been permanently raised and can no longer return to the era of unguarded free navigation.