The market is paying close attention to the interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Thursday, and people are worried that Walsh will give up or immediately reduce communication. Or is it February https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/2018129302114689163? What s=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A talked about: what can be done is more important than what one wants to do, the pace of policies has a greater impact on the market than policy proposals, and the direction in which the system will slowly move in the coming years determines long-term asset pricing. Returning to Thursday, the key points to pay attention to are: 1) It is highly likely that they will remain inactive, but the key is how the FOMC views inflation? Especially as the Strait of Hormuz is about to open after the signing of the US Iran memorandum, oil prices are declining. The external driving factors facing inflation should be significantly different from the past three months; 2) Pay attention to whether there is still a dot matrix (Walsh wants to reduce forward guidance); 3) The press conference should still be held, but there may be much less talk than Powell did before. Overall, before the midterm elections, I personally think that Walsh may not be as tough as everyone thinks, after all, the constraints of reality are here, and if the Strait of Hormuz opens up, the trend of oil will also change. At the beginning of February, https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2018129302114689163? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A has talked about how the policy pace of Walsh will be divided by the midterm elections: 1) During the midterm elections, it is highly likely that the current policies will remain unchanged. Of course, in February, I thought he would take the opportunity to raise interest rates (at that time, the Iran conflict had not yet erupted), but now my personal opinion is that he will try his best to maintain not raising interest rates, especially after the decline in oil prices, which has given him reasons and confidence not to raise interest rates. Inflation determines the upper limit of interest rates (whether to raise interest rates or not), Labor determines the lower limit of interest rates (whether to lower interest rates or not) 2) Many of his reform initiatives may gradually be implemented starting next year. After all, having just moved into the Federal Reserve, he also needs time to familiarize himself with the situation. Especially since taking office one month ago, the core senior staff team during Powell's tenure has basically remained in place, without any large-scale personnel adjustments, which also shows the pace of Walsh's governance.