The bullish logic after the June dip now has another layer of validation. The latest AAII investor sentiment survey, updated today as of June 10, shows that the bearish sentiment has risen to 47.7%, nearing the extreme bearish level of 52% seen on March 18 this year, and far above the historical average of 31%. Meanwhile, the bullish sentiment is only at 30.4%, significantly below the historical average of 37.5%. This indicates that after the June correction, market sentiment has shifted from the optimism of a week or two ago back into the fear zone. Historically, AAII isn’t a precise timing indicator, but when bearish sentiment approaches extreme levels, it suggests that a lot of bad news has already been priced in by the market. Once the four major uncertainties—liquidity shortages, escalating US-Iran tensions, yen carry trade risks, and Kevin Warsh’s unpredictability—are fully digested, a reversal is likely on the horizon. Of course, pessimistic sentiment alone isn’t a reason for the market to rally. Sentiment is just one of the criteria I use for judgment. Fundamentals, technicals, news, and options have all been analyzed in today’s summary. Ultimately, what determines the direction is earnings and fundamentals. When AI capital expenditure is still growing, corporate earnings expectations haven’t significantly deteriorated, and market sentiment is at its most pessimistic level of the year, it at least suggests that the current environment is laying the groundwork for a future reversal, not the end of a bull market optimism bubble.