✅ Expected Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2026: Wall Street collectively switches sides, leaving only Citigroup's' lone hero 'to hold on Recently, with May's non farm payroll data significantly exceeding expectations (adding 172000), inflationary pressures rebounding (energy prices pushed up by geopolitical conflicts), a strong job market, and continued support from AI demand for economic resilience, major Wall Street investment banks' expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in 2026 have almost collapsed across the board. At the beginning of the year, most institutions expected at least 1-3 interest rate cuts within the year, but now driven by factors such as high oil prices, tariffs, and the possibility of core PCE inflation remaining above 3%, the vast majority of investment banks have abandoned their 2026 interest rate cut forecasts, and some have even begun to consider the possibility of a 2027 interest rate hike. Among the major investment banks, only Citi still adheres to the "lone hero" stance of cutting interest rates within the year, and is expected to cut interest rates three times within 2026 (with the first delay until September), citing that the current strong employment growth is difficult to sustain and the labor market will significantly soften in the next three months. Goldman Sachs has completely abandoned its forecast for a rate cut in 2026 and postponed the first rate cut to June and December 2027; J.P. Morgan included interest rate hikes in its benchmark forecast early on; BNP Paribas expects to raise interest rates three times in a row starting from December 2026. The reason why the market pays special attention to Citigroup's views is because it has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to make accurate predictions in the past Federal Reserve policy forecasts - last year, when multiple large competitors predicted a "no move," Citigroup accurately predicted three 25 basis point interest rate cuts. The current overall interest rate path: The federal funds rate remains in the range of 3.50% -3.75%, and market futures pricing shows a high probability of remaining stable or slightly increasing in 2026. True easing may not occur until 2027. The impact on assets: The US dollar is relatively strong in the short term, and US bond yields are prone to rise. High valuation technology growth stocks, especially the AI sector, will continue to face valuation pressure. The logic of "the stronger the data, the harder it is to cut interest rates" is still fermenting. The expectation of a rate cut in 2026 has shifted from a "consensus" at the beginning of the year to the current "minority". Against the backdrop of the "impossible triangle" dilemma faced by the new chairman Kevin Warsh, the policy space of the Federal Reserve has been severely compressed. The CPI data for May this week (to be released tonight) and the FOMC meeting next week (June 16-17) will be key testing windows.