BTC's largest drawdown in this bear market, in my opinion, is likely to be between -60% and -68%. Historical comparison: -83% in 2018, -77% in 2022. This cycle, due to the large-scale rollout of spot ETFs and the increase in long-term institutional holdings, the market's maturity has significantly improved, and the probability of extreme halving-style crashes has greatly decreased. Currently, we've already seen a drawdown of over 50% from the 126k ATH in October 2025, with the 60k range now becoming a golden zone for spot DCA (dollar-cost averaging). The final bottom is expected to form around 44k, after which we’ll enter the accumulation phase for the next bull market.