The last straw that crushed market sentiment On June 1, 2026, MSTR announced through the submission of 8-K regulatory documents that it would sell 32 BTC and cash out $2.5 million between May 26 and May 31. Only 32 coins, if it's just an ordinary investor, can't make any splash at all? But it cannot be MSTR. The chain reaction it brings is no less than a black swan event caused by an institutional thunderstorm. On the second day of the MSTR coin sale, Long Term Holders (LTH) ended their net growth of 103 days (2/13-5/27) and the position curve began to turn downwards. As of June 6th, net holdings decreased by 60169 BTC; Seemingly not much, it is because there is an increase in LTH holdings and some offset after TSH conversion here. In fact, within just 11 days, LTH has distributed a total of 182000 BTC. We don't know who these 182000 BTC belong to. But it can be confirmed that when MSTR announced the sale of coins, these LTHs chose to leave. The biggest fear of a bear market is excessive distribution. The rapid declines in the first few bear markets of this round were all accompanied by a significant reduction in LTH net holdings (shaded area in Figure 1). Because this poses a severe challenge to the recovery of market demand and confidence. We have analyzed the algorithm of LTH and the principle of net position reduction in three consecutive tweets, which mentioned that as long as the net position of LTH continues to rise, the market will not fall deeply. The real performance under the influence of supply and demand is from 2/13 to 5/27, and BTC has formed a supply-demand balance around $65000. Even in the face of a series of problems such as liquidity reduction, inflation rebound, soaring US bond rates, and decreasing expectations of interest rate cuts, the balance has not been disrupted. And this time, MSTR's 32 BTC became the last straw that crushed emotions. As the saying goes, 'Success is like Xiao He, defeat is like Xiao He' ..... So the depth of this drawdown depends on how LTH performs in the future. If the distribution gradually stops and the net position rebounds, it is highly likely that it can be maintained at around 60000 or even above. On the contrary, if excess supply continues to have an impact on the demand side, the consequences will be incalculable. The good news is that we are currently seeing a gradual weakening of the downward trend in LTH net holdings since June 3rd. Next, we will continue to observe .....