At present, the force that can save the overall decline of financial assets on Black Friday this week is hidden in the Federal Reserve meeting on June 17th. Whether it is an eagle or a dove will determine whether the market will reverse the bearish trend or continue to decline. The impact of interest rate cuts on the market can be roughly divided into two parts: one is the actual liquidity injection brought about by real interest rate cuts, and the other is the social capital flow brought about by changes in expected interest rate cuts. More often than not, we are actually focusing on the latter game. Specifically speaking at the June FOMC, it is indeed unlikely to cut interest rates. Firstly, Walsh's position is not stable, and secondly, the opposition was too strong during the last vote, and Friday's strong non farm payroll data also does not support a rate cut From Trump's speech, it seems that there is a hint that he will not interfere with Walsh in October, that is, he has taken preventive measures in advance, and it is not because of political pressure that he will decline or not. The mid-term election is coming in November, and Trump may mobilize forces to exchange interests before that in exchange for interest rate cut to stimulate the election. After all, Powell also cooperated by delaying interest rate cuts during Harris' campaign. However, expectations can be changed and manipulated. For example, Trump forced the end of the Iran War and resumed shipping across the Straits as soon as possible to reduce inflation. This is the aforementioned Trump has the ability to exchange interests. It also matched his pace in dealing with the Iranian issue. Trump was not particularly urgent. He still had one to two months to deal with the Iranian issue and accumulated 2-3 months of good data for Walsh to cut interest rates. The concentrated listing of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic this year will drain a large amount of liquidity, and the market also has expectations for this. The issuer is also very aware of this, so they are using extremely low circulation stocks to avoid this matter. They may use small-scale circulation to raise the stock price when going public, and gradually unlock and sell to the market in the future. There is no need to worry about the recent decline in the market, especially in AI concept stocks. The reason is simple: if there is a real stock market crash, it will be the biggest step to emergency interest rate cuts. Picking up chips in the golden pit is not a happy thing In short, our main focus now is on whether the FOMC meeting on June 17th can bring the market price in's expectation of interest rate hikes back onto the track of interest rate cuts