SpaceX's IPO received oversubscription, with a transaction size of $75 billion and a price of 135 per share, corresponding to a valuation of $1.8 trillion. It was priced on June 11 and opened for trading on June 12. This is also currently the biggest hot topic of concern in the market Let me first share my thoughts. SPCX may experience a surge at the opening, but after experiencing this wave of emotions, I will not consider configuration for the time being. Although this is a necessary sector for large funds to allocate, it is absolutely impossible to blindly chase after a valuation of 2 trillion yuan on the first day of IPO. At present, my operation plan is that in the Pre IPO stage, we can consider looking for opportunities to do more, and then wait for the shock period after the first wave of frenzy foam burst and washing up before starting to build positions. I believe that Musk will be successful again Another point is, how long will this oscillation period last? My personal opinion is that it will be difficult for SpaceX to directly generate profits for at least one year, and when it first turns losses into profits, it may be the best time. The judgment of this event node comes from many people's consideration of whether SPCX will be included in the index and force many passive funds to take over. I saw today that the S&P Dow Jones Index has decided to retain the current rule that "companies must have achieved positive net profit in the past year". This means that super IPO companies, including SPCX, will need to walk at least a year to be included in the S&P 500 index this year. Therefore, this will significantly reduce the expected SpaceX buying after listing (originally expected to be at least $14 billion) I am not very optimistic about SpaceX turning losses into profits in the short term. According to the S-1 document he released, SpaceX incurred a loss of over 4.9 billion US dollars in 2025, and is still losing money in Q1 of this year, which clearly does not meet the requirements for inclusion in the S&P 500. So, without this large portion of passive fund buying, it is a question of whether such a large market value of a sky dropping company can stabilize its existing market value. Considering that commercial aviation is still a dream stock, the establishment cycle of SPCX may start from one year To paraphrase the viewpoint I previously posted on OKX planet: In the macro environment of high 10-year US Treasury yields, the current liquidity and ability to generate revenue alone are far from enough to support a market value of nearly 1.8 trillion yuan (with a valuation target of 90 times sales). The extremely high Capex combined with an excessively high valuation center means that the entire company heavily relies on financing capabilities to provide subsequent research and development expenses. After all, it is a legitimate company and after going public, it is necessary to submit financial reports and actual deliveries to shareholders for review. As long as the Mars colonization plan is delayed or the speed of Starlink's profit is slower than expected, the market may feel that the pie is too big and there will not be good performance. Overall, this valuation is largely due to the high expectations of the Earthlings for Musk and the resulting premium for the dream of Martian immigration. In the early stages of listing, it is possible to bring down the liquidity of the entire commercial aerospace sector, such as RKLB and other stocks. ” So when I figured it out, I put RKLB ASTS and other space sectors for hedging. Finally, it must be acknowledged that SpaceX is not entirely a rocket making company. In its current version, it is more like a global space logistics and monopolistic multinational telecommunications operator disguised as a space company. Perhaps SPCX is a call option for all human technological breakthroughs, carrying Musk's Mars dream, but its downside is that it is too expensive. Finally, a few words of idle talk. Previously, I had done PI certification and wanted to participate in SPCX, so I researched new listings on the US stock market. However, I found that generally speaking, new listings on the US stock market depend on luck, and not all securities firms can have quotas. Securities firms need to independently connect with "listed companies" or their listing service teams, and not all new stocks on the US stock market can support subscription. Seeing the situation of SPCX, which belongs to the restricted investment category, I feel that some companies in the future may not necessarily release quotas to Hong Kong securities firms... For example, @ AnthropicAI is a typical example of rejecting Chinese people