Bad news: The median cost line for bitcoin:native short-term holders is at $74,800, and they've been in loss for 8 consecutive months, with an average unrealized loss of about 14.4%. The logic behind this batch of funds buying BTC is different from the last cycle's old crypto veterans. Many are asset allocation funds, macro trading funds, and ETF channel funds. But there's also a relatively positive piece of news: The 90-day STXO average for BTC long-term holders has dropped to 962 BTC, the lowest since November 2024, which means selling pressure from old coins is decreasing, and the underlying market remains relatively stable. BTC's current state is a typical pricing adjustment period after institutionalization. This time, a lot of the funds are asset allocation, macro trading, and ETF channel funds. Since the price isn't consistently rewarding buyers, the market naturally struggles to attract the next wave of more aggressive buyers. Also, something very subtle: $75,000 is also the average cost line for Strategy. The duration of BTC staying at low levels and whether the capital market continues to finance Saylor directly determines if it will become the biggest slow-burn risk of this cycle. Damn, it's kind of like the Sword of Damocles!