non-farm Tonight's non farm payroll is an important milestone in testing the strength of US employment growth since the beginning of the year But tonight's non farm payroll is likely to be bearish The current market expectation is mainly concentrated around 8.5, which is consistent with the expected value In the past few data, ADP private employment increased by 122000, described as a rare occurrence of more extensive recruitment in recent years, and the market is reluctant to bet on significantly lower than expected non farm payroll data Job vacancies in April jumped to 7.618 million according to JOLTS data The amount of initial unemployment benefits has also risen to a four month high These data make the market more concerned that tonight's data will be more pessimistic than expected Another factor in terms of wages is that the market expects an average hourly wage rate of 0.3% per month and 3.4% per year. If employment and wages are strong together, the US dollar and US Treasury yields will rise, suppressing other risky assets such as gold BTC Summary: If tonight's data is too strong, it is easy to suppress expectations of interest rate cuts, which is not conducive to the rebound of cryptocurrency; If it is weak, it may provide a repair window for risky assets, but it must also cooperate with the market to regain key structural positions.