Knowing it’s still going to drop, why buy now? Yesterday, a friend asked me this question. I jokingly replied: 'You can just think I’m dumb.' But hey, I’m not the only 'dumb' one out there. Don’t believe me? Check out this data: We’ve grouped wallets on-chain by their BTC holdings: Group A: Holds 100-1k BTC Group B: Holds 1k-10k BTC Group C: Holds 10k-100k BTC Group D: Holds >100k BTC The data for these four whale groups corresponds to Charts 1-4 below. You can see that during the dip since late May, only Group A reduced their holdings, while the other three groups have been accumulating overall. And these three groups are precisely the most powerful whales on-chain. So, do you think they’re 'dumb'? At this point, some of you might be thinking: the bigger the size, the longer the cycle; whales aim for a vague correctness, not the precise bottom. So, what about us regular retail investors? Each of us has a rough prediction of the market. For example, you might think this bear market bottom will be around 50k-55k. At this point, there are basically two considerations: 1. If it reverses before reaching that range, will you feel anxious about missing out? 2. If you buy and it keeps dropping, will you feel anxious about daily losses in your account? So, which of these two types of 'anxiety' do you think would be more painful for you? If you think 'missing out' is more painful, then buy early. If you think 'being stuck' is more painful, then buy later. These correspond to two different trading strategies. But keep in mind, when the price really hits 50k, there will inevitably be a lot of noise (all kinds of bearish sentiment hitting you). Will you still be able to stay firm? Or will you have the guts to go all-in at the lowest point? As for me, knowing myself, the thought of 'missing out and hesitating whether to chase' would make me more anxious. And I’m not afraid of being stuck with $BTC at 60k+, so I chose the former (of course, this is based on controlling pace, position size, and my prediction of the bottom range). Finally, back to the question at the beginning of this post: 'Knowing it’s still going to drop, why buy now in a bear market?' It’s the same logic as 'Knowing it’s still going to rise, why sell now in a bull market?' There’s no right or wrong in trading. What suits you best is the best strategy!