TingHu♪|6月 04, 2026 03:53
Today, I mentioned the bull trap (a structural bull market that appears during a bear market), which is also known as a technical indicator turning bullish. Objectively speaking, these indicators are usually not very accurate. The so-called technical bull or technical bear is hard to define. Sometimes, a so-called technical bear is actually a good buying opportunity, and a technical bull is a selling point. In a bull market, technical bears are almost always good buying opportunities, sometimes secondary ones (higher than the lowest point). In a bear market, technical bulls are mostly selling points or secondary selling points. Only when the trend reverses can it truly be considered a real bull or bear shift.
A lot of people who trust these indicators end up panic selling during bull markets and buying back at higher levels, and the opposite happens in bear markets. So, the most important thing is still to judge the trend. But trend judgment is very subjective (for example, many of my judgments are quite subjective), unlike these data points that have 'objective existence.' For instance, based on the 'objective data' this time, which many people see as following the trend ➤ technical bull, you’d basically be stuck at the peak of this rebound phase. It would be impossible to subjectively come up with a strategy to take profit around the time of Trump’s visit to China. That strategy might seem non-objective, even 'against the trend,' rather than 'following the trend.'
So, when people talk about trends, sometimes they’re not even referring to the same thing.
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