In most datasets, the average cost for a certain group of $BTC holders tends to follow a relatively smooth curve. But if it suddenly spikes up or drops sharply, it indicates concentrated exit behavior. In Chart 1, we can see that on May 20, when $BTC pulled back to around $76,000, the average cost line for $BTC held for 6-12 months suddenly took a “90-degree turn” downward. This is an uncommon signal. Based on the timeline, it seems that the chips bought between May and November 2025 were being traded, with their cost range between $$85,000-125,000. At the same time, we reviewed related data (Chart 2) and found that the $BTC sold here had realized losses ranging from -38.2% to -23.6%. “Holding for nearly a year, losing an average of 30%, and cutting losses to exit...” From a psychological perspective, this is a form of capitulation — they simply couldn’t hold on anymore. Looking at historical data, when similar “can’t hold on anymore” behavior keeps appearing, it often signals that the “phase correction” is nearing its end.