If we use 'short-term capital on-chain activity' as a weighted metric, which stage are we in now? 3 possibilities (marked with light yellow shading in the chart): 1⃣ Bear market bottom 2⃣ Secondary bottom (with one last drop to go) 3⃣ Consolidation before takeoff The logic here is: it's not that 'short-term turnover cooling down' *must* mean a bear market bottom, but rather that such low activity levels only occur near the bear market bottom. In different cycles, environments, and macro contexts, when this situation arises, the market's expectations and pricing tend to be on the lower side. However, as activity gradually recovers, a re-pricing is inevitable. Rationally speaking, we can temporarily rule out 'Option 3' for now, but both 1 and 2 are possible. That’s why I personally wouldn’t bet all my funds on just one of these scenarios. This forms the general framework of my current trading strategy. (Even if there’s one last drop, whether it breaks a new low or plunges significantly is a whole other topic.)