The IPO wave of 160 billion US dollars is coming, and I've been thinking, will it drain the market? Will the market fall? In June, SpaceX will take the lead in charging forward, By 2026, there will be around 100 companies lining up to go public, In total, we need to take $160 billion from the US stock market. I have reviewed several reports and roughly sorted out three answers regarding their impact on the market. Will a super giant IPO like SpaceX drain the market's money? Let's take a look at the data of big players like META and GM. The S&P 500 experienced an average decline of 1% one month prior to its major IPO listing. But one month after going public, it rebounded by 5%. The overall trend is very similar to the curve of high-yield bonds. The so-called 'siphon' mainly refers to the emotional reaction before going public, and does not mean that the market's money is really low. After the new stock is listed, where does the money come from and go back. The ultimate rise or fall of the market depends mainly on the macro environment, interest rates, liquidity, and economic cycles, all of which have much greater weight than IPOs. What kind of company can continue to rise after an IPO? Let's take a look at the IPO companies that have outperformed in history, and there are only two commonalities. One is that the revenue growth rate should be fast, preferably above 20%. Another requirement is that profitability should be achievable within 1 to 2 years. Companies that meet both criteria have an average return of 90% within 12 months after their IPO. The remaining ones with good revenue but long-term losses, relying on stories to raise money, will mostly fall back after IPO. Capital is very practical. Will the expiration of the lock up period cause a stock market crash? Let's first talk about the lock up period. When the company first went public, the stocks held by early investors, founders, and employees were frozen for 180 days and could not be sold before maturity. On the day of expiration, everyone can cash out and leave. The data on this aspect is quite consistent. Since 2017, IPO stocks have fallen an average of 5% one month before the lock up period expires. Those listed after 2023 are even more exaggerated, starting to decline from 6 months before expiration, with an average drop of 10%, and the duration of decline is also longer. The meaning is that smart money will withdraw a few months in advance, and retail investors will take over later. However, within three months after the lock up period ends, the stock price usually rebounds above the closing price of the previous day. The process of falling is very uncomfortable, but as long as there is no cutting at the lowest point, there is a high probability of a rebound. Overall, we don't have to worry too much about the IPO wave hitting the US stock market. Because from historical data and mechanisms, the impact on the stock market is limited. To summarize in one sentence, Whether you can really make money depends on the revenue and profits of the company you bought.