Second half of 2026, dollar liquidity will most likely remain relatively friendly. This doesn’t mean the 'Fed is turning the money printer back on.' QT has already ended, bank reserves are still in a comfortable range, ON RRP has been mostly drained, and excess liquidity has returned to the banking system. What really matters next is the TGA. If the Treasury account decreases, fiscal spending will flow more directly into bank reserves, effectively adding liquidity to the market. If there’s large-scale bond issuance in Q3/Q4 to rebuild the TGA, it will temporarily drain liquidity. But the Fed now has a buffer tool: RMP, Reserve Management Purchases. It primarily buys short-term Treasury bills to maintain sufficient reserves. It’s not traditional QE and doesn’t aim to actively stimulate asset prices. So the baseline scenario for H2 is: Dollar liquidity won’t be tight, and might even be moderately loose; Short-term funding markets won’t face much pressure; Risk assets will have underlying support. The real risks are threefold: 1. Rapid rebuilding of the TGA; 2. Inflation rebound forcing the Fed to turn hawkish again; 3. Geopolitical or energy shocks driving up financing costs. H2 2026 won’t be a massive liquidity bull market, but it also won’t be a drought. The liquidity is there—you just need to watch when the Treasury decides to drain it.