‘Bear Market Bottom Prediction’ – Is it metaphysics or science? (Final Chapter) As time goes on, the circulating supply of BTC itself increases, so if we measure by the absolute value of loss-making coins, it will be affected by changes in the denominator. To more fairly compare the "pain threshold" of each bear market cycle, it’s better to use a percentage version (loss-making supply as a proportion of circulating supply) instead. After adjusting for this, we’re likely to see the "peak value" consistently trending downward, but the slope of this decline is influenced by changes in cost structure, not just the denominator effect. From the data in the chart below, we can see that in the past three bear market bottoms, the peak loss ratio was: August 2015 at 64%; February 2019 at 60%; November 2022 at 55%. Is this metaphysics? Is this coincidence? … Of course not! There are several overlapping objective logics behind this: 1⃣ The accumulation of low-cost coins is increasing, forming a thicker "immunity layer," which lowers the upper limit of supply that can be turned into losses. 2⃣ The bottom price of each bear market is rising, and the maximum drawdown from bull market peaks to bear market bottoms is narrowing; the shallower the drawdown, the fewer coins dragged into losses. 3⃣ Holder structures are becoming more mature. With ETFs, institutions, and other long-term capital entering the market, holdings are more diversified, and turnover is more rational. The extreme concentration of high-price buying during bull markets has decreased, reducing the loss-making scope in bear markets. 4⃣ The proportion of lost and long-dormant BTC is increasing, diluting the denominator of "loss-making supply." At this point, we should be able to move beyond metaphysical thinking and return to a scientifically rational perspective. Due to the impact of cost structure changes, looking at the past three cycles, the peak loss ratio has roughly been decreasing by about 5% per cycle. For example, February 2019 was 60%; November 2022 was 55%; and by February 2026, when BTC drops to $60,000, the loss ratio will happen to be 50%. Of course, this could just be a coincidence! A more scientific evaluation method would be: based on the four logical points above, while it doesn’t guarantee that the loss ratio will decrease by exactly 5% each cycle, it’s at least consistently declining. Since the last cycle was 55%, and the temporary peak for this cycle is 50%, we can reasonably speculate that the "threshold range" for this cycle’s bear market bottom will form when the loss ratio reaches 50%-54%. From this perspective, February has a decent chance of being the "bear market bottom." As Glassnode’s former lead analyst Checkmate said, he estimates the probability to be around 80%. If not, and as many friends have suggested, there might be two more retests. In that case, what price would BTC need to drop to for the "loss ratio" to enter the 50%-54% range? Take a guess! The answer might surprise you