看不懂的SOL|May 23, 2026 02:25
The internet is flooding with buying of US stocks,
The Nasdaq reaches a new high of 100 every day, as if the whole world is buying.
But what is the real data?
By the end of 2025, there will be approximately 6 to 8 million people in China who have purchased Nasdaq funds.
The total number of large A accounts is 220 million, accounting for less than 3%.
If we deduct repeat purchases from supermarkets outside the venue, the actual number is less than 6 million people.
And for these 6 million miles, long-term holdings are estimated to account for only 10%.
Holding for more than 3 years? About 500000 people.
500000 people.
Brothers, this is not niche, this is endangered.
01) Let's take a look at the funds again.
The total size of domestic Nasdaq funds is about 100 to 150 billion yuan, but ETF institutions on the exchange account for more than 70%, while off exchange funds are mainly composed of individuals.
Individual investors actually hold approximately 70 billion.
What is the concept of 70 billion?
The total market value of A-shares is about 100 trillion yuan, accounting for less than 0.1%.
Not even a small fraction can be considered.
Guotai Na Index ETF retail investors hold 120000 households, which is already the first place, but their personal proportion is only over 20%.
The proportion of off exchange QDII fund institutions is only 1% to 2%, with a total of 2.8 million people holding shares from Guangfa, Hua'an, Yifangda, Jiashi, and CMB - but many of them are duplicates, with the same person buying several of them.
It looks very popular, but upon opening it up, it's still a niche game.
What's even more troublesome is that the channels are still tightening.
Two policy directions:
First, it is strictly prohibited to open overseas securities accounts for Chinese Mainland residents;
Secondly, for those that have already been opened, they may need to be gradually withdrawn or closed within two years.
Complaining is useless, even if you say it, you won't be happy.
But it has a huge impact on friends who invest in Hong Kong and US stocks.
For friends who buy A-shares on and off the exchange, the impact is equally profound.
Everyone wants their assets to appreciate and invest in areas with good long-term returns, and demand exists for the long term.
But the channels that meet demand are constantly being compressed.
Long term purchase restrictions and closures outside the market, long-term high premiums on the market, and now even overseas accounts need to be cleared.
What does this mean?
This means that in the future, if you want to invest in US stocks, you can only buy a few Nasdaq and S&P ETFs in A-shares, further exacerbating the internal competition. Just like a few years ago when the real estate market was booming, restrictions on home purchases, tea fees, and point lottery still couldn't stop the enthusiasm for buying a house. But at least the house can still be bought, and the quota of the Nasdaq ETF will really run out.
----
After reading these data, my feelings are very complicated.
On the one hand, the long-term return of the Nasdaq 100 is indeed good, with an annualized rate of over 10% and an astonishing compound interest effect. On the other hand, the people who truly enjoy this return may be less than 500000 in China.
500000 people, out of a population of 1.4 billion, is 0.035%. What does this mean? It means that if you are in the car, you have already defeated 99.96% of the people.
It's not because you're smarter, it's just because you're one step ahead of others and have persisted for a little longer.
My suggestion is simple:
If you have already bought it, do not sell it easily.
The chips in your hand will become increasingly scarce in the future.
If you want to continue buying, seize the opportunity to invest and build a position.
Although the Nasdaq has reached a new high, in the long run, it is still likely to be at a low point.
Don't be afraid, don't be afraid of heights. Long term holding, patiently wait.
Brothers, the people referred to by Mana are indeed lonely. Perhaps you can meet a few like-minded people online, but in reality, the people around you are either talking about houses or complaining about A-shares.
But loneliness is right, excess returns always belong to a few people.
Conditional overseas, unconditional Alipay. Let's start working first.
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