The Sixth Wave: Humanoid Robots Reshaping Human Civilization The Age of Universal Robots: The Next Trillion Dollar Industry is Born! Throughout history, every wave of innovation has fundamentally reshaped the essence of human productivity and labor. Steam engines promote mechanized manufacturing, power creates assembly lines, computing promotes digital productivity, and the Internet promotes global coordination. Today, we are entering the sixth wave: defined by embodied artificial intelligence. This new era is necessary. The global economy is facing a historic labor shortage. By 2030, there will be a global shortage of 85 million workers and an unrealized GDP of approximately $8.5 trillion. Traditional software automation has reached its limit, and physical tasks still stubbornly rely on labor. The solution is not more software, but to turn intelligence into machines. Physical labor is one of the largest markets in the world, but it is difficult to achieve productization outside of specialized machines. Universal robots have always been the holy grail, enabling labor to manufacture and sell on a large scale. The large-scale commercialization of intelligent humanoid robots is not an easy task - it is one of the most technically challenging challenges in the world. You need to have deep expertise in computer vision, robot learning, robot behavior, humanoid control systems, actuator design, manual engineering, fleet orchestration, complex hardware high-speed manufacturing, and other specialized fields where talent is extremely limited. We have reviewed over a hundred humanoid biotech companies, but we believe few have the capability to create a company that can ultimately deliver millions of robots into the real world. That's why so far, we have only supported two humanoid biotech companies - @ Figure_robot and @ Apptronik. Although there will be some big winners in this field, there will also be many failed attempts. In our opinion, these two companies are among the few in the West that possess successful talent and leadership. Why humanoid creatures, why now? The demand for labor is not only growing, but also dispersing. The aging population, shrinking labor force, and increasing wage pressure are intertwined with consumers' growing expectations for the speed, reliability, and resilience of physical services. These macroeconomic changes are causing a structural imbalance between available labor and the tasks that must be completed. In response, the labor market is redefining fundamental changes in the objects or content of work. Universal humanoid organisms have emerged. Humanoid organisms will not only fill the labor gap, but also accomplish this task more cost effectively, quickly, and on a larger scale. At a unit price of $50000, the hourly cost of humanoid robots is already lower than that of human workers in most parts of the world, including $2 per hour in China, Mexico, and even India. In the next few years, there is a clear path to reducing manufacturing costs to below $50000 per high-quality robot in the market. As the supply chain matures, there is ample room for significant cost compression in the next decade. Mathematics is very simple. Robots do not require rest, vacation, sick leave, health benefits, or labor protection. They can work 22 hours a day, 7 days a week, almost year-round, with only battery replacement and almost zero marginal cost of software improvement. If the robot only runs at human speed, it is easy to infer that a general-purpose robot can achieve 3-4 times the output of a human. Under the constraints of labor supply and inflation, humanoid organisms are a cost reducing solution. When talking to many customers, even without cost savings, they still prefer to use robots rather than real people. Managing human labor is very difficult. High turnover rates, performance issues, and constant recruitment and training of new employees are not as serious problems for robotic labor. Unlike industrial robotic arms or wheeled delivery robots designed for specific tasks, humanoid robots are designed to work in environments already designed for humans. They do not require infrastructure redesign or specialized integration teams to implement customized workflows. On the contrary, they promise universality: the ability to complete various physical tasks in unstructured space with almost no need for reprogramming. Of course, but why do they have to look like humans? Because we have already built this world for humanity. Door handles, shelves, forklifts, stairs - all optimized for two arms, two legs, and a certain height. There is nothing that can compare to the native compatibility of all devices. We have optimized our infrastructure around ergonomics for hundreds of years. Tools, vehicles, factories, offices - they all assume a certain range of motion, height, and operational capability. That's why legs, arms, and hands are important. Not for vanity, but for interoperability. In fact, if you design a universal robot based on basic principles, you will find that it does look a bit like a human. You may have arms and hands with tactile perception for various modes of operation. It is reasonable to have at least 6-7 degrees of freedom (DoF) for each leg, knee, ankle, and hip joint, in order to achieve dynamic movement and balance. You need to install at least two cameras on top of the robot's eyes to achieve 3D vision/depth perception. You may have a central torso containing core components such as a main processor, battery, etc., rather than organs. Perhaps some small differences can be made, such as installing retractable wheels on the feet to improve travel efficiency, but overall, this robot will be more like a human like creature! The fusion of universal robots in human form stems from the fact that the most complex and adaptable "universal machine" in history is the human body, which operates in environments built by and for humans. Robot automation technology has existed for decades, but even in highly industrialized environments, we still see humans working in factories, warehouses, construction sites, and other places because humans have adaptability. This adaptability is exactly what humanoid organisms can provide. Hardware consistency brings significant advantages in terms of cost-effectiveness and scalability. Okay - there are some subtle differences here, and the article title is somewhat misleading because our argument covers all general robots. The legs and waist of humanoid organisms have a significant impact on their cost. Wheel bases currently have much lower production costs, and although they may not be able to traverse terrain like legs, many tasks may not be necessary. Robots with wheels can easily move between floors in most buildings, and even use elevators to move between floors. In fact, there are many jobs that do not require movement, and humans stay at the same station all day long. In this case, simple two handed robots or mobile robotic arms would be more practical - most of the work is done by our arms and hands. This is what @ DynaRobotics is prioritizing. What about specialized robot technology? Skeptics believe that general robots will not win; Professional robots will be launched faster, perform specific tasks better, and gradually replace the market. Indeed, specialized equipment usually leads the early rounds. But history has shown that general platforms often occupy larger markets over time. They benefit from scale and wider applicability, sometimes comparable in performance and cost-effectiveness to specialized competitors. We believe that both markets will be very large, with each dominating different segments of the market. Do you still remember MP3 players, GPS devices, and digital cameras? All of these devices have been replaced by a universal device: smartphones. At the beginning, it was not the strongest in any aspect, but it was good enough in all aspects and eventually became better. The moment of iPhone appeared in 2007, and now, 18 years have passed. Smartphones are everywhere, and applications developed based on smartphones are constantly emerging. Humanoid robots will also become platforms, and 'developers' will build applications that look like human skills. The same situation has also occurred in the field of computer science. As the name suggests, ASIC has application specificity and can perform specialized tasks extremely well. However, they are only a small part of the GPU market. The only constant in this world is change. Changes in algorithms, production lines, working environments, etc. This is precisely the driving force behind the market's demand for adaptive products. Like GPUs and smartphones, humanoid organisms can meet an extremely wide range of market demands. This is particularly useful in places where humans perform various tasks today, such as the catering industry. Workers can be expected to be responsible for cleaning, delivering meals, preparing food, managing inventory, and more. Some manufacturers need to process thousands of SKAmericaKU and different product releases multiple times a year. If the factory workshop and processes are constantly changing, humanoid organisms may be the best choice. Enterprises also face practical financial considerations, and it is impossible for all enterprises (especially small and medium-sized enterprises) to bear the large capital expenditures typically required to purchase specialized machinery, rather than paying for the continuous cost of robot labor as a service. According to data from the World Bank and the OECD, the global labor force accounts for 60% to 65% of GDP, approximately $60 trillion to $70 trillion. Conservative estimates from McKinsey and Boston Consulting Group indicate that 60% or more of labor involves tasks that can be automated using existing or recent technologies. This means that the accessible market for general robots is approximately $42 trillion, far larger than the dedicated hardware market. The difference from previous waves of automation is that this is not a winner takes all situation. The humanoid robot market is gradually taking shape in the automotive industry, with multiple participants, differentiated hardware and software stacks, and diverse application scenarios. Market size: trillion dollar horizon The real question is how big the market can become and how can it be converted into revenue? The scale of opportunities in the field of humanoid robots is unprecedented. Conservative predictions indicate that there may be 100 million to 1 billion humanoid robots deployed globally in the next few decades. Calculated at an average unit price of $50000, this is equivalent to a potential market value of $5 trillion to $50 trillion. As Elon Musk said: I think we are heading towards a completely different world, an interesting world. My prediction for humanoid robots is that there will eventually be billions. Everyone will want to have their own robot. This will unleash enormous economic potential Based on the logistics growth model consistent with Elon Musk's long-term predictions, the trajectory of the global deployment of humanoid robots is as follows: To better understand this opportunity, we matched these deployment estimates with potential revenue results through a highly challenging market size analysis and a unit price of $50000. Even moderate large-scale adoption means billions of dollars in revenue. Calculated at an average S&P 500 revenue multiple (~2-5 times), this means that the potential enterprise value could reach trillions - highlighting why humanoid robots are being compared to the next trillion dollar platform transformation. Every year, billions of cars, hundreds of millions of personal computers/laptops, and billions of mobile phones are sold. We expect general robots to be as ubiquitous as these devices. Let's take a different perspective to understand the value of this industry. Wal Mart's annual net profit is. SG&A labor+COGS labor costs Wal Mart $160 million annually. It is 8 times their business scale. In theory, if labor costs were reduced to zero, their enterprise value would increase by $160 million - a nine fold increase! More realistically, robot companies can replace and reduce labor costs by 25%. Wal Mart's profits have tripled. Wal Mart saved $40 billion, and the company selling labor earned $100 million. This is the value of robots!