rick awsb ($people, $people)|5月 17, 2026 00:38
Written before NVIDIA's financial report next week
---Analysis of NVIDIA's "direct price increase" and "disguised price increase (through system level bundling and product architecture reconstruction)" to customers.
NVIDIA has leveraged its absolute monopoly position of nearly 80% in the AI computing market, and its price increase strategy has evolved from the traditional "simply raising chip retail prices" to "maximizing value recovery through reshaping computing power procurement rules and network bundling".
1、 NVIDIA's "direct price increase" and "disguised price increase" strategies
1. Directly raising prices (at the chip and consumer level)
Consumer grade GPU direct price increase: For flagship graphics cards on the consumer end (such as RTX 5090), due to the significant increase in memory costs of the new generation GDDR7, Nvidia has recently officially raised prices by $300 (about 2000 yuan) to its AIC partners, which has further pushed up the actual zero selling price of consumer grade high-end graphics cards on the channel end.
The significant increase in average price of data center chips (ASP): The individual selling price of the new generation Blackwell architecture chips has significantly increased compared to the previous generation Hopper. The market expects that even the entry-level B100 will have an average selling price (ASP) between $30000 and $35000 (already on par with the previous flagship H100); The high-end GB200 supercomputer, which includes Grace CPU and dual B200 GPU, is priced directly at $60000 to $70000 per unit.
2. disguised price increase (systematization, network bundling, industry chain profit recovery)
System Bundling: This is Nvidia's most core "disguised change/premium" method. Nvidia is accelerating its transition from selling GPU chips to selling integrated cabinet solutions. Taking the GB200 NVL72 platform as an example, the price of a single complete cabinet is as high as 2.8 million to 3.4 million US dollars, while the price of the reasoning optimized GB300 NVL72 has risen to 6 million to 6.5 million US dollars. Customers cannot purchase bare GPU chips separately when making a purchase, and must also pay a high price for the NVLink switch system, Spectrum-X Ethernet card, liquid cooling system, and other components that come with the cabinet.
Compressing OEM space to recover industry chain profits: In the future Vera Rubin architecture, Nvidia plans to directly deliver pre built computing trays to customers, which will account for approximately 90% of the total BOM cost of servers. This actually deprives server foundries (such as Dell, AMD, etc.) of the design and accessory premium space, effectively recovering all profits of the entire computing power industry chain into Nvidia's hands.
Cross pricing pressure on network equipment: Currently, the anti-monopoly investigation by the US Department of Justice (DOJ) and the review by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) in China, the core accusation is that Nvidia is suspected of "imposing punitive price increases or non support on its network equipment if customers choose chips from competitors (such as AMD and Intel) when purchasing GPUs," thereby indirectly forcing customers to purchase the entire Nvidia solution.
2、 Relevant analysis of the capital market
Gross profit margin and ASP accounting: The Wall Street sell side model has directly raised the ASP assumption for Nvidia's data center hybrid GPU for fiscal year 2026 from $26000 to $33000. Wall Street's extremely high non GAAP gross profit margin expectation for Nvidia's earnings report next week, around 75%, is also based on the premise that this ability to raise prices has been fully realized.
Premium pricing for whole cabinets: Wells Fargo has raised Nvidia's target price to $315, with its core framework based on the assumption of large-scale shipment of "$3 million whole cabinets (GB200/GB300 NVL72)". That is to say, in the short term, the high unit price brought by the system's packaged sales no longer has any extra "unexpected unpriced space". If the management cannot prove in next week's financial report that the gross profit margin for whole cabinet shipments can continue to remain above 75%, the stock price may even decline as a result.
From a longer-term perspective of the computing power network lifecycle, there may be even more extreme disguised price increases and system value expansions in the future
When the computing power cluster evolves from the current GB300 generation to the future Rubin Ultra generation, the system packaging value of network components and chip integration will achieve a significant leap.
That is to say, the market has only priced the system level price increase for the Blackwell generation, but has not fully reflected the premium for the Rubin generation's ability to extract up to 90% absolute profit from the entire data center BOM cost through deep system integration.
In summary, Nvidia's direct price increase in consumer grade GPUs due to rising memory costs, as well as the disguised price increase at the data center system level through network suites, have been fully accounted for in the short term market, but in the long run, there is still considerable room for growth.
Disclaimer: I hold the assets mentioned in the article, and my views are biased and not investment advice, dyor
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