qinbafrank
qinbafrank|4月 29, 2026 09:50
HBM sold out, NAND sold out, and now hard drives are also sold out. Watching Seagate's financial report and phone call will provide the most intuitive feeling. This is also a vivid portrayal of the current shortage of AI driven storage across the entire chain, with several key points: 1. Almost all of the near line HDD production capacity has been sold out: The management has repeatedly emphasized that almost all of the near line capacity has been pre allocated to 27 years, and major cloud/ultra large scale customers have been locked in through build to order contracts. The production capacity will be basically sold out by 2026, and most of the contracts for the 2027 fiscal year have been finalized. 2. CEO Dave Mosley directly pointed out that AI workloads (inference, agentic AI, physical AI) amplify data creation, and the demand for near line HDDs far exceeds supply. The company's strategy is to increase EB shipments through increased surface density (HAMR/Mozaic technology) rather than expanding unit production capacity, resulting in tight supply and favorable pricing environment. Near line products account for nearly 90% of total EB shipments 3. Parallel to HBM/NAND: HBM sold out due to the tilt of AI GPUs across the board → NAND also sold out due to data center demand and capacity mismatch → Now it's HDD's turn (especially enterprise/near line high-capacity disks). Seagate and Western Digital have both confirmed that the HDD production capacity will be basically sold out by 2026, and some contracts will be extended until 2027-2028. This forms a complete AI storage 'sell out chain'. The core logic is still that AI is experiencing a turning point from periodic training to sustained reasoning. Agent AI and physical AI (such as autonomous driving and robotics) are generating unprecedented amounts of unstructured, persistent data. For example, a single autonomous vehicle generates 4TB of data every hour. This trend has made high-capacity hard drives (HDDs) an indispensable mass data storage layer in modern data center architectures. Seagate enters an AI driven structural tight balance - with sold out production capacity, extremely high visibility, record breaking gross profit margin (47% non GAAP), and a long-term growth target raised to at least 20% annualized. This is highly consistent with the sell out logic of Micron/SanDisk and others on HBM/NAND, as the entire storage sector is enjoying the same super cycle dividend.
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