If conviction buyers (CB) determine the floor for BTC, then the ceiling depends on first buyers (FB). They bring fresh blood to the market while absorbing excess distribution. As of May 13, FB holdings have returned to 3.719 million BTC, an increase of 40,000 BTC compared to what we mentioned in our May 1 tweet. Details: https://(x.com)/Murphychen888/status/2050097599382745531 The continuous accumulation by new buyers reflects a gradual recovery in investor risk appetite. CB absorbed a large amount of panic selling at the bottom and prevented the market from falling further into the abyss. However, to climb out of the swamp, more FB participation is needed. After all, during the recovery phase, many short-term holders will want to take profits as prices rebound, and these need to be absorbed by FB. If we compare this to the last cycle, the current 3.72 million BTC is equivalent to the level on September 21, 2022. From here on, whether or not we encounter black swan events, FB will need to continue increasing their holdings. Once holdings reach 4 million+ BTC, the overall market structure will become healthier. At that point, we can be fairly confident that there won’t be any significant drops, or even a break below previous lows.