Anyone who often studies candlestick chart techniques should have a deep understanding of 'price action.' Today, I’m sharing a method to use BTC’s large-scale price action to assist in directional judgment, and it’s super friendly for everyone (completely free). The method is: calculate BTC’s percentage price change over the past 90 days. The current result is around +20%. Simple, but very significant! Looking back at historical data, we can see that whenever the green indicator shifts from long-term > 0 to < 0, it signals that BTC has entered the main downward cycle of a bear market. This is Phase 1. When the indicator shifts from long-term < 0 to > 0, it means BTC is about to enter Phase 2, the bear/bull transition period. The longer the indicator stays above the zero axis, the higher the probability of a trend reversal. For example, right now, it’s been 11 days already. Since this is based on a 90-day large-scale timeframe, occasional daily or multi-day drops/rises don’t affect the indicator’s movement at all. On the other hand, when the indicator starts to change, it means there’s been a sustained internal shift on a more macro level, which will eventually be reflected in price action. So, the 'bear/bull transition period' doesn’t equal 'the full onset of a bull market.' Only after Phase 2 is completed and we enter Phase 3 (blue arrow in the chart) can we truly declare 'the bulls are back!' From my personal experience over the past three cycles, 90% of retail investors are still skeptical and waiting for 'one last drop' even when we’re already in Phase 3. Don’t believe me? Let’s wait and see.