The AI pullback window is opening. Three factors tightening simultaneously: ① CPI at 3.8% exceeds expectations, rate hike probability rises to 30%, rate cuts are completely off the table; ② Trump’s approval rating at 36%, midterm election benefits are fully priced in, policy-driven gains start reversing; ③ AI capex cycle is being questioned—$600 billion in capital expenditures by the Big Five tech companies, free cash flow turns negative for the first time in 35 years, OpenAI’s market share drops from 87% to 65%. This isn’t a crash, it’s a valuation reset, and also a period of energy buildup for the next wave of growth.