The focus of tonight's market is on the April US CPI data, and it is expected that oil prices will continue to rise due to high inflation. However, more attention should be paid to the "deviation between data and market expectations" (especially 0.1-0.2 percentage points or more), which is far more important than the absolute level of the data itself. The market values most of the expectations, and what can truly trigger fluctuations is "surprise" (surprise/shock, degree of deviation from expectations). Another thing worth paying attention to is the trend of core CPI. The broad CPI is difficult to lower due to the significant increase in energy, and the market is also more concerned about the trend of core CPI excluding energy and food. When the inflation data for March was released in mid April, it was because the year-on-year and month on month core CPI in March was slightly lower than expected, which eased market concerns. The current market has certain expectations for energy transmission, but if the core CPI shows a "second round effect" (energy has spread to services/wages), the negative impact will be even greater; On the contrary, if only the broad CPI temporarily rises and the core CPI stabilizes, it will be interpreted as "controllable" Looking at the inflation forecast of the Cleveland Fed, the broad CPI is higher than expected year-on-year and lower than expected month on month, while the core CPI is lower than expected year-on-year and month on month. If such data is available, it is naturally a good thing. It depends on how the data is actually released tonight This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'