After last week's ceasefire news, U.S. stocks, bonds, and oil showed different trends— U.S. stocks (red line) outperformed U.S. oil (green line), while U.S. bonds (blue line) lagged behind U.S. oil. To some extent, these trends reflect how investors in the three markets are voting on the direction of the U.S.-Iran conflict: 1) The stock market is closest to liquidity. The market believes that the core pricing of U.S. stocks isn't tied to the Middle East, but to Washington. So, the war is just an event—if the risks are controllable, asset fluctuations will eventually be corrected. 2) Oil is closest to geopolitical risks. The market doesn't trust verbal de-escalation; the Strait of Hormuz is still there, and physical risks haven't disappeared, meaning supply issues will persist. 3) Bonds are the most interesting—they're closest to the cost of policy, betting on a more complex rate-cutting path. The current inflation challenges and fiscal pressures mean the U.S. can no longer easily shift the costs of war abroad like it used to. Ultimately, this could lead to further compression of domestic policy space in the U.S.