Murphy
Murphy|May 10, 2026 01:01
I use the Coinbase Premium Index, Binance USDC/USDT exchange rate, and RMMPC on Glassnode as the three core indicators to observe the purchasing power of the US dollar. RMMPC reflects the driving force behind BTC from the two major markets: the US region (blue line) and the Asia region (red line) over a period of time. Whichever curve is higher indicates which region is more dominant in BTC's price action. As we can see, since February 27, the blue line has been higher most of the time, meaning that during this period, US investors have been the main drivers of BTC's price. However, starting two days ago, the positions of the blue and red lines reversed. This kind of crossover pattern usually signals that the dominance of US capital is starting to decline. To put it in simpler terms for everyone: US capital is retreating, and Asian capital is stepping in. That said, based on historical data, even when the blue and red lines reverse, it doesn’t mean an immediate drop. The market often has some inertia and can sustain itself for a while. Looking further ahead, it will depend on whether US capital re-enters and how long Asian capital can hold up. The worst-case scenario would be triggering a short-term correction. But personally, I think there’s no need to worry—healthy corrections are actually a necessary condition for completing the "bear-to-bull transition." (Referenced quote: If all three conditions are met, then BTC might lose its upward momentum. Currently, condition 2 is neutral, while conditions 1 and 3 are met.)
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