qinbafrank|5月 08, 2026 15:25
Three key points regarding the cooperation agreement between Coin and Circle, as well as the future space of Circle. Today, Coinbase CFO AHaas stated in a conference call that Coinbase's USDC contract (note: referring to the distribution agreement with Circle) will automatically renew every three years and will be permanently renewed. This contract cannot be terminated "Many people were scared by this statement.
In fact, this renewal clause was clearly stated in the cooperation agreement signed by both parties for 23 years. At that time, the agreement was public, and it was previously disclosed in the EX-10.1 (Circle S-1 related attachments) and Coinbase 10-K/annual reports filed with the SEC. It was not just changed today. Actually, some investors should have expected this
Although I had hoped for new changes in the renewal negotiations before,
For the future space of Circle, it's actually good to focus on three points:
1) Let's first look at the growth of USDC issuance, which determines the increase in reserve income, and this is the fundamental stock. Will the issuance of USDC increase to hundreds of billions of dollars in the coming years, and overall revenue will also skyrocket.
2) Then look at the development of CPN, which is the upper limit that determines the future circle. A few days ago, we talked about the launch of CPN Managed Payments, which marks Circle's further iteration and upgrade from being a "stablecoin issuer+reserve interest dominant" to a "B2B SaaS payment infrastructure provider".
The future source of income will no longer rely solely on reserve interest, but on transaction volume driven revenue (transaction fees bps, service subscription fees, infrastructure usage fees, FX spreads, etc.), which is consistent with Circlezai's goal of scaling up non interest income in 2016. Income is more sustainable and resistant to cycles (even with lower interest rates, increased trading volume can bring stable cash flow)
The core of business model iteration and upgrading lies in this:
Evolved from "selling USD stablecoins" to "selling global payment tracks", providing network services similar to SWIFT through B2B SaaS.
3) Looking at the exploration fee model of cctp v2 "fast transfer" in non interest income, estimate the future revenue of arc public chain.
The second point that individuals value the most in non interest income is the growth of the Circle Payment network, which is the cornerstone of the future Circle business model.
My personal understanding is that because of the sharing agreement with coin, many people believe that circle is being drained of blood and are not optimistic about it. In fact, these doubts were more or less priced in the previous trend of CRCL. At this point, it is even more important to pay attention to marginal variables and new sources of revenue for new businesses. As long as this area grows rapidly, it means that the transformation of the business model is accelerating.
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