New York Fed survey shows stable long-term inflation expectations According to a report by Golden Finance on May 7th, a survey by the New York Federal Reserve showed that despite new price pressures brought about by the Iran war, long-term inflation expectations for American consumers remained stable in April. The inflation expectations for the next 12 months have slightly increased, but compared to the March survey, there has been no change in the inflation expectations for the next three or five years, indicating that consumers believe that the price shock caused by the war will be temporary. Federal Reserve officials closely monitor long-term inflation expectations as these data serve as an indicator of the Fed's credibility. If people lose confidence in the Fed's ability to control inflation in the long term, they may choose to accelerate purchases before their purchasing power is eroded by inflation. The acceleration of consumer spending may prolong the inflation that the Federal Reserve is trying to contain. Other indicators of long-term inflation expectations are even more worrying. The University of Michigan's April consumer survey found that inflation expectations rose to their highest level since October 2025. Earlier this month, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate based on market-based inflation expectations reached its highest level since early 2023. The April survey by the New York Federal Reserve also showed that consumers feel uneasy about the labor market. On average, consumers believe that the probability of an increase in unemployment rate in the next 12 months is 44%, the highest level in a year.