The Early Bus of Natural Trading Bitcoin Market - The Fourth Wave is Still Continuing, Entering a Real Battle between Long and Short Prices Just now, a friend asked me: Has the price of Bitcoin peaked when it has rebounded to around 82800? Has the fourth wave at the weekly level ended? My analysis and response are as follows: Firstly, the fourth wave of rebound has entered the end zone, but strict "confirmation of peak" still needs to wait for key signals. Confirmation signal for the end of the fourth wave: (1) After the price is blocked in the 82000-84000 area, a 4-hour bearish candlestick (long upper shadow, swallowing pattern) appears; (2) There is a continuous accumulation of large amounts of entrusted selling orders on the order book; (3) Long positions can experience depletion, while short positions can exhibit primary or secondary volume capabilities; (4) The funding rate has turned from negative to positive and the position has started to decrease; Before these signals appear, the fourth wave rebound may still continue. Secondly, the daily trend is still bullish. The trading volume has increased compared to the previous days, and ETFs have seen net inflows for 4 consecutive days, with a bullish trend in the moving average system. Don't rush to top the market just because you anticipate it will soon reach its peak. Thirdly, short selling crowding is the fuel for short selling. The continuous accumulation of short position costs is a potential driving force for prices to continue rising. But this is also the core hidden danger of future decline. However, it can be confirmed that the current fourth wave at the weekly level is a rebound wave in the bearish trend, not a reversal. The fifth wave of decline will only be late, not absent. After the CPI data is released in mid May, the time window for the mid line reversal may open, and everything will become clear. Be patient and observe carefully.