☀️ Morning market report: 60000 mark officially broken, next stop 58000?

Bitcoin has just undergone a 'bloodbath'. The psychological barrier of 60000, which is regarded by countless people as the "steel bottom", was officially breached last night, with the lowest reaching around 59000 US dollars. Over the past 24 hours, the bulls have been cleared of more than $1.5 billion, with over 300000 people selling out, and over 80% of the orders being long. This is not the end, it's just the acceleration of the main downward trend of the fifth wave at the weekly level. With the intervention of copying the chassis above 59000, BTC prices rebounded slightly to around 61600, but the trading volume did not significantly increase during the rebound process. Remember: A rebound is an opportunity to short, not to buy at the bottom or go long. It is estimated that the rebound will continue to fluctuate and accumulate momentum, and then fall below the 59000 level in one fell swoop. Those who buy at the bottom or go long, if they do not take profits in time, will all be trapped or suffocated! Below, we will provide a brief analysis and summary of each key point: 1. A set of core data overview. Net wide stock explosion: over 1.5 billion US dollars, over 300000 people Proportion of multiple overstocks: over 80% Continuous ETF outflows: Accumulated outflows of approximately $4.4 billion over the previous 13 trading days 10-year US Treasury yield: above 4.5% The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in June: over 90% (June 15-16) Brent crude oil: above $100 per barrel Fear and Greed Index: 5-12 (Historical Extreme) 2. Why wasn't 60000 held? Firstly, the deterioration of the macro environment is the biggest driving force. The May non farm payroll data in the United States far exceeded expectations (adding 172000 vs expected 85000), and the market's bet on a rate hike before the end of the year has risen to about 70%. The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds soared above 4.5%, and global assets experienced a "sell-off wave" - the Nasdaq fell 3%, gold fell below $4330, and Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, was the first to bear the brunt. Secondly, Mt Gox is expected to experience selling pressure. The bankruptcy trustee has initiated the Bitcoin repayment process for creditors, and the cold wallet has transferred tens of thousands of BTC. The market is concerned that creditors who have been waiting for a long time will continue to sell. Thirdly, institutional funds are still withdrawing. The ETF had a net outflow of approximately $4.4 billion for 13 consecutive trading days. More importantly, there is a serious differentiation in the market: "passive buyers" represented by Strategy and ETFs are buying, but whale addresses (1000-10000 BTC) have shifted from net buying to significant net selling, with a change in holdings of approximately -188000 units within the year; Listed mining companies sold over 19000 BTC in a single week. Passive buying is being crushed by active selling. Fourthly, the siphon effect of the AI race track continues. Funds are flowing from the cryptocurrency market to AI driven stocks, and AI core targets such as Nvidia continue to drain liquidity. 3. Subsequent Bitcoin price deduction: After breaking 60000, 58000 is the next stop. A continuous bearish candlestick at the 4-hour level, with a decrease in volume and a rebound in volume, indicating absolute strength of bears. The daily chart has fallen below 0.618, with a pullback of 67182 and a pullback of 64846 at 0.786. The 60000 psychological level has been breached. Where is the next key support? From the Fibonacci cycle perspective, $58000 is currently the most important technical defense line. The current support level of 60000 is highly likely to be effectively breached, which may trigger a larger scale technical sell-off, with 55000-58000 below becoming the next line of defense. However, bulls and hijackers will not easily surrender, they will constantly try to counterattack. Therefore, the price will fluctuate repeatedly and accumulate momentum in the range of 59000-62000. It is estimated that after several days of volatility, as macroeconomic pressure continues, Japan's interest rate hike is implemented, and whales and miners continue to sell, the 58000 level will face a test, and a waterfall crash is not impossible to occur. 60000 is the first stop, 55000-58000 is the second stop, and 42000-45000 is the final stop. 4. Current trading strategy. The main downward trend of the fifth wave at the weekly level has only one direction: rebound, short selling at high prices as the main strategy, and fast in and out when short is long. Current operation: Observe around 61600, do not chase empty. The price has fallen below the 60000 support zone, but the profit and loss ratio for continuing to chase short is not ideal. Short term short selling or medium-term short placement: Wait for the rebound to be blocked in the 62000-63000 area before entering the market, with a stop loss of 65000, a first target price of 60000, a second target price of 58000, and an ultimate target price of 42000-45000. Mid line layout of spot: Consider building positions on the left side in batches after the price drops to 42000-45000. Shanzhai Coin Strategy: Resolutely Avoid. ETH has fallen below $1600, and in a liquidity depleted environment, altcoins will be the first to be sold off. 5. The final warm reminder 60000 is not the bottom. 58000 is the first stop, 55000 is the second stop, and 42000-45000 is the final stop. Our predicted ultimate target price for BTC decline in this bear market is around 42000-45000 yuan, and in extreme cases, it may reach 38000-40000 yuan. Why isn't 60000 the bottom? Because the buyer base in the current market continues to narrow - the price "bottom" mainly relies on passive buying support from a few institutions, while whales and miners are actively selling. When passive buying cannot absorb active selling, the price can only seek equilibrium downwards. The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates on June 15-16 exceeds 90%, and closing interest rate arbitrage trades may impact global risk assets. This is currently the biggest macro risk. Take advantage of the situation and do not rush for a rebound. Wait for the market signal and patiently wait for the bottom before buying. The only correct action now is to watch more and move less. Bitcoin BTC three-dimensional integrated trading analysis: Bitcoin bear market with 60000 yuan has broken Japan's interest rate hike countdown