Two key datasets gave Bitcoin market participants strong conviction near the price peak. Expectations of rate cuts, a rebound in the U.S. equity market, and large-scale capital inflows all seemed to support further upside. However, the outcome unfolded in the exact opposite direction. Even during the price shock, whale activity continued to increase, which distorted market perception and led participants to misjudge the situation. In particular, CVD-based whale patterns—widely used and considered highly useful—became counterproductive in this cycle. Despite the price shock, the indicator continued to show strength, reinforcing bullish conviction. But in reality, the market did not follow through. Ultimately, since the ETF era, market structure and transaction patterns have become far more sophisticated. If a signal is obvious to everyone, it is no longer an edge. And when something appears too easy, it tends to fuel excessive greed among participants, leading to overheating. In such an environment, the effectiveness of data inevitably begins to deteriorate.(mignolet)