Murphy
Murphy|4月 29, 2026 12:26
I used to be confused about how long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH) were specifically divided. If there is a misunderstanding of the logic of the data, it can lead to one-sided or even erroneous analysis results. For this purpose, the Glassnode developer team and I conducted in-depth discussions on the algorithms and definitions of LTH and STH. The Chinese community still lacks a comprehensive analysis and explanation. I happened to see that Ni Da @ PhyrexNi and Teacher Xiao Chu @ riyuexiaochu were discussing this topic, so I tried to explain it to everyone The first step is to determine the exact threshold for distinguishing between STH and LTH based on coin age. Glassnode analyzed the slope of the probability curve of UTXO being spent during various time periods. The result is that in each case, the coin age with the maximum slope of the sample is exactly 155 days. That is to say, the probability of BTC being moved again is minimized after holding it for at least 155 days. Therefore, we will hold 155 days as the basis for distinguishing between LTH and STH. Secondly, based on this, Glassnode engineers also considered the average time since the purchase date for each on chain entity. If the time exceeds 155 days, the entity is considered a long-term holder. For example, if I have 10 BTC in my wallet that I have held for 300 days, and I bought 5 more today and held them for 1 day, then the average time is: (10 * 300+5 * 1) ÷ 15=200 days; This time is greater than 155 days, so the 5 coins I bought today will be classified as long-term holders. In the third step, to refine the sharp classification threshold and transform it into a smooth weight factor curve, Glassnode used a logic function with a midpoint of 155 days and a transition width of 10 days. This way, the curve will be smoother and will not suddenly surge or plummet. Generally speaking, if held for about 177 days, 90% of Bitcoin will be allocated to LTH supply. So, in summary, the increase in LTH net holdings indicates two points: 1. Old LTH increases holdings, as long as the average holding time of BTC in the wallet is greater than 155 days; 2. STH's BTC was held for a long time and became a new LTH after approximately 177 days; But the increase in LTH net holdings does not mean that LTH is not selling. For example, let's take Figure 4: Since July 7, 2025, LTH has accumulated 574.7w BTC, but the actual net position of LTH has only decreased by 4.4w BTC. This indicates that while LTH expenses are incurred, there is also a significant amount of STH held in place, thereby supplementing LTH. Starting from February 14, 2026, the net holdings of LTH have resumed an upward trend, indicating that the total amount of increased holdings of old LTH and unchanged holdings of STH converted to new LTH has exceeded the amount spent on LTH. So for the market, it means that the pressure from the supply side has decreased. As the demand side continues to accumulate with the improvement of the macro environment, we will gradually emerge from the quagmire of the bear market.
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