一起发财|4月 21, 2026 10:34
Market pullback schedule:
In 2013, liquidity contracted sharply during the "money shortage" period, but Internet plus companies saw growth of about 80% in the GEM due to the outbreak of performance;
During the Internet foam in 1999, oil prices soared and the Federal Reserve continuously raised interest rates. However, the NASDAQ 100 index still gave a very high valuation due to the rapid growth of profits (about 60%), and the index subsequently rose by about 90%.
In 2025, the ChiNext Index rose 49.57% for the whole year. About 13% by April 2026.
These two cases are similar to the current trend in the AI industry. When short-term industry trends erupt, investors need to find an outlet in the stock market to form a pool of existing funds, which may actually result in higher valuation premiums.
Threshold value of the proportion of technology stock transactions (proportion of total market transactions): the threshold value of iPhone cycle in 2009-10, the threshold value of Internet plus in 2013-15, and the threshold value of domestic substitution of semiconductor in 2019-2021 are 17%, 30% and 40% respectively. Since the beginning of this AI industry cycle, the threshold has risen to around 45% and is currently around 36.7%.
Conclusion: The foam is still blowing and accumulating. It is not time for everyone to open their accounts.
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