Why isn’t $60,000 Bitcoin the bear market bottom? A lot of people start shouting 'the bull is here' as soon as they see a rebound. Sure, emotions are running high, but let me be honest—this isn’t the bottom. Three reasons: 1. On-chain losses haven’t hit the extreme yet. On-chain data shows that this cycle’s profit peak is 40% higher than the last one, but the loss peak is actually lower. The market is bigger, but the capitulation and sell-offs haven’t been ruthless enough. Without a true large-scale flush-out, there’s no bottom. 2. Fake rebounds have happened before. In mid-2022, $BTC rebounded from $17,600 to $25,000. Back then, everyone was calling it the bottom, but then FTX collapsed, and we hit new lows. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. 3. The time cycle isn’t complete yet. Looking at the four-year cycle, past bear market bottoms have mostly occurred in Q4. Even if this year’s bottom comes early, the earliest would be Q3. Right now, it’s more of a bear market continuation, not the end. The real bottom is when the market is completely dead, and everyone believes 'crypto is dead.' If people are still debating 'is this the bottom,' it means we’re far from it. Stay tuned for more updates on the crypto space!