The early bus of the market: The dead cat rebound of Bitcoin's fourth wave is dead, and the fifth wave of decline is being realized On April 28th, I posted a prediction that mid May would be a major turning point. On May 11th, I gave a clear probability of 80% that 82860 would be the endpoint of the fourth wave. Looking back at the K-line now, the dead cat rebound of the fourth wave at the weekly level has ended, and the high point of the rebound is 82860. This is not luck, it is the deduction of energy, time, and structure in a three-dimensional integrated system. 1、 Market Status: The rebound structure is dead, and the bulls are struggling to survive The rebound high point gradually decreases, and the bulls are exhausted. Since peaking at 82860, the high point of each rebound has been decreasing: 82860 → 82350 → 81680 → 80500. Short positions gradually increase at high levels, while long positions gradually weaken. The daily level volume price divergence continues, with a 4-hour MACD dead cross and no reversal signal. At present, the daily physical bearish line is increasing in volume, and the bears are absolutely strong. The price has fallen below the 1st axis and 0.786 position of the Fibonacci uptrend channel at the daily level, and is currently oscillating and accumulating momentum at the 0.618 position. In the short term, it will face a new direction. In the new week, the long and short sides will fiercely fight, and the bulls will resist fiercely, but both are at the end of their strength and futile. However, the ultimate result is that the bulls will be defeated, and the bears will dominate the direction of the middle line. 2、 Why is 79500-80000 the ultimate price range for subsequent rebounds and the 'short order free money position'? The daily Fibonacci channel shows that the current price is at the strong gravity level of 0.618 (78400). According to natural trading theory, there is a high probability that it will rebound below the 0.786 level, which is below 80000. In a weak situation, the price can only rebound to 79000-79500. But four reasons determine that this is just a 'lure to rebound': Firstly, the 80000 level has been repeatedly verified as a strong resistance. Every time they approach, they encounter profit taking, and short-term holders are taking advantage of any upward opportunities to exit. The 82000 and 200 day moving averages coincide, forming a double suppression. Secondly, ETF funds are withdrawing. Last week, the cumulative net outflow was about 1 billion US dollars, ending six consecutive weeks of net inflows. On May 13th, there was a single day outflow of $635 million, the largest since February. Thirdly, the macro level is still tightening. The 10-year US Treasury yield is 4.599%, reaching a new high in nearly a year; The 30-year period is 5.125%, reaching a new high since 2007. The market is raising interest rates ahead of schedule for the Federal Reserve. The US dollar index rose 1.4% for the week, achieving its best performance in 9 months. Fourth, the Middle East conflict suppresses risk appetite. Trump said he has "lost patience" with Iran, Brent crude oil has stabilized at $107-109, and the geopolitical risk premium has been recalculated. Fifthly, if the Clarity Act on May 21st is passed smoothly, it may pulse to 79500-80000, but the positive news is all negative. In the context where trading volume cannot be amplified, pulses are a lure to buy more. Even if the Clarity Act is passed and the price exceeds 80000, continuous volume increase is still needed. The current energy structure is not supported. 3、 The high point of short-term rebound and its probability evaluation in the future 79000: Probability 60-65% (4-hour technical rebound demand) 79500: Probability 30-35% (requires message coordination, limit level) Above 80500: probability below 5% (suppressed by 200 day moving average, unable to reach) If the price falls below 77600-78000, the support will be confirmed to have expired, and the next target will be 76500 → 75000. The target price for the fifth wave of decline is very clear: First objective: 71000-72000 Second objective: 60000-61000 Ultimate goal: 45000 to 50000 5、 Trading Strategy Short term long position (light position, actually I don't recommend going long anymore! Don't go against the trend and take orders!): Stable at 78000-78400 is worth trying, with a target of 79500-80000 and a stop loss of 77500. This is a rebound, not a reversal. Mid line short selling: Wait for the price to rebound to 79000-80000 and there will be a bearish signal, then lay out in batches. Stop loss 81000, target 76000 → 72000. 6、 Time window May 20th: Clarity Act voted unanimously. If it is possible to pulse up to 79-80k, it is an opportunity to add a short position, not a reason to chase long positions. 7、 The last few sentences Rebounding to 79500-80000 is a position for you to lay out empty positions, not for you to chase long positions. The script of Deep Bear has just turned to the second page. For more detailed market analysis, prediction, and trading strategies, please refer to the following This article. Bitcoin BTC Market Analysis: 5th Wave, US Bond Yield Deep Bear Warning Issued