Bitcoin isn’t a typical asset class, and it doesn’t behave in ways that technical or fundamental analysis can reliably explain. It’s better understood as a religion. Like any religion or cult, it gains strength as more people believe in it, and weakens when belief fades. The same, to a lesser extent, applies to many other assets as well. What draws people in are compelling, viral (often false) narratives: institutional adoption, sovereign adoption, inflation hedge, digital gold, and so on. When those narratives lose momentum or fail to materialize, sentiment deteriorates, and price will follow. Bitcoin is in a bear market. Until a new wave of narratives emerges to reignite the enthusiasm, the long-term trend will remain under pressure. But ask yourself: what narrative could realistically materialize now that would surpass those already pushed, when nearly every angle has been explored? That is why many long-term maxis are jumping ship, as they know the fad is over. A significant drawdown over the next few years looks increasingly plausible. It may seem out of reach now, but a move below $20K isn’t out of the question.(Jacob King)