7.3w=breakeven point! The structural characteristics of the second half of the bear market have emerged In theory, a complete bear market should be clearly reflected in the overall market's' realized net profit to loss ratio '. From bull to bear, to the first half of the bear market, the magnitude of the "positive shift" in the profit to loss ratio will gradually decrease, representing a decline in market profitability. Due to the increasing number of losing chips, the profits that can be realized with each rebound are bound to decrease. Until the middle and later stages of the bear market, the zero axis in the middle, which is the break even point, is an insurmountable gap on the road to rebound. In the latter half of the bear market, even if prices do not rebound or continue to decline, the profit loss ratio shows a smaller negative shift with each extreme deviation compared to the previous one. This indicates that a large number of chips trapped at high positions have been replaced at low positions, so when the price falls again, the degree of loss is not as severe as before, so the "negative offset" of the profit loss ratio gradually decreases. We can see that the previous cycle from December 2021 to April 2023 perfectly presented this process. And in this cycle, from October 25 to January 26, it also went through the first half - the profit and loss ratio gradually decreased as it crossed the zero axis. As the bear market enters the second half, we should also witness once again the structural characteristics of rebounding to the zero axis breakeven point in the middle and gradually narrowing the negative range of the breakeven ratio. Because it has a top-level logic that conforms to market operating rules, I believe this observation path can be replicated. Returning to the current situation, the "realized net profit/loss ratio" corresponding to BTC price of $73000 is exactly around the zero axis. According to the above logic, this is the sensitive position of breakeven. Perhaps that's all for now, or perhaps it will slightly surpass it, just like when it rebounded to 9.7w in January this year. But what can be certain is that even if the zero axis is crossed, the amplitude will not be very large, corresponding to a price range of only a few thousand dollars. Based on this, I am unable to accurately determine the point for short-term trading. But in the general direction, I personally believe that the second half of the bear market has not yet finished, but the structural characteristics approaching the bottom have gradually emerged.