Tonight at 8:30 PM, no exaggeration, this is one of the most closely watched CPI reports in decades. Why is the March CPI so critical this time? 1️⃣ It coincides with peak conflict: On February 28, the war between the U.S. and Israel began, and throughout March, oil prices skyrocketed from $70 to a historic high, with the war spanning the entire March reporting period. 2️⃣ The numbers could break a 40-year record: Month-over-month is expected to be +0.9%, something that has only happened 16 times since 1981. Year-over-year inflation is expected to jump to 3.3%. 3️⃣ Inflation expectations are spiraling out of control: Consumers expect inflation to hit 3.4% over the next 12 months, while gasoline price expectations are at 9.4%, the highest since 2022. 4️⃣ The Fed is completely cornered: With inflation at 3.3%, rate cuts are off the table, but the weakening economy means rate hikes are also impossible. Under the shadow of stagflation, the Fed is stuck in a dilemma, and rate cuts this year are essentially off the table. ⚠️ However, Iran agreed to a ceasefire two days ago, causing oil prices to plummet 20% in a single day. Tonight’s data might blow past expectations, but the market has already priced it in—setting the stage for the classic "bad news is good news" narrative to play out at any moment. The real focus should be on whether core CPI has been contaminated—if inflation excluding energy is still rising, it means oil prices have already spread through the entire supply chain, and that’s the real trouble.