Tiger Brother never acts recklessly. He always anticipates the script in advance. If you don't believe me, look back and verify the viewpoints of March 28th. I mainly focus on midline logic analysis now, and I am not very concerned about short-term changes and fluctuations, so my post is not very meaningful to short-term players, and it is easy to be misled, which can be ignored! Posts are more suitable for groups who are interested in trends, need a general direction, and are in the medium to long term. Yesterday, the two-week ceasefire agreement was first violated by the Israeli side, and then Vance and Press Secretary Levitt kept speaking, probably from the American side. The Israeli side and Langzi Ge responded with practical actions with just a few words! Throwing a shell, retaliating and closing the shipping channel, it's so awkward. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy also clearly express concerns about the Middle East situation and its impact on the subsequent economy. Interest rate cuts and hikes are possible, and now there are more voices of interest rate hikes. In addition to the impact of the Middle East situation, the viewpoint of tariffs has been emphasized! Even if the situation in the Middle East eases, tariffs remain a long-term issue! If the situation in the Middle East really eases immediately, what will Trump do next? Apart from continuing to impose tariffs, what other card does he have that can quickly boost the economy and be most beneficial for the 2026 midterm elections, fully in line with his interests? Moreover, the situation in the Middle East is difficult to ease, and the repair of tail risks after the conflict also requires a time cycle! Enriching uranium and Iranian oil is equivalent to extracting someone's bone marrow. If I don't give it to you, you may have some concerns when you hit me. If I give it to you, don't you want to hit me? We can't cut interest rates any further, we don't see any probability of a rate cut! The narrative of recession and stagflation is bound to come. I don't expect a bull market anymore. This year is likely to be like this, with ups and downs. If Japan doesn't do things, it will be better, but if Japan raises interest rates, it will be even harder to play. I didn't sleep much last night, originally intending to keep an eye on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy minutes. However, after watching them all night, Vance and Levitt had a night of stand up comedy, which was quite interesting. Now we are in a semi detached state and have more time to study these macro narratives and medium - to long-term trends. It's great. Crypto Bitcoin