The world’s understanding of Trump is less than 5%. Just yesterday he was threatening to wipe out Iran, and today there’s a ceasefire agreement—it’s no longer plausible for Trump himself not to have placed a long position. Bitcoin surged rapidly to $72K, but the implied volatility (IV) of major-expiry options continues to decline; even the IV of near-expiry options has fallen. Skew’s negative skew has decreased, driven by the price rally. Meanwhile, due to the rise in RV, the VRP—which had rebounded significantly yesterday—has fallen again. Judging by key options indicators, the rebound above $70,000 has clearly boosted market sentiment, primarily by alleviating fears of a black swan-induced crash, rather than reflecting expectations of sustained price gains.(Greeks.live)